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"L'avenir est par nature imprévisible la nature de l'investissement est que les décisions que vous devez prendre maintenant concernent un avenir qui est intrinsèquement inconnu"

Howard S. Marks
Howard S. Marks Investor
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Quote meaning
Investing is a journey into the unknown. You have to make choices about where to put your money without knowing what the future holds. It's a bit like driving down a foggy road, trusting that the path continues even though you can't see it. The essence here is that no one can predict the future with certainty, and investing always involves making decisions based on incomplete information.

This idea isn't new. It's been a part of investing wisdom for ages. Why? Because history has shown us time and again that markets are unpredictable. Think about the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. Investors were pouring money into internet-based companies, expecting huge returns. But then the bubble burst in the early 2000s, and many lost their investments. It was a stark reminder that the future is uncertain, no matter how promising things seem.

Let's look at a real-life example to make this hit home. Imagine Sarah, a small business owner. She decided to invest in a local tech startup. The startup had a brilliant idea—an app that connects freelance artists with clients. Everything looked great on paper. The founders were experienced, the market research was solid, and early user feedback was positive. But a year in, a global tech giant released a similar app with more features and better funding. The local startup couldn't compete and eventually shut down. Sarah lost her investment. She realized just how unpredictable the future can be.

So, what can you do with this wisdom? Diversify. Spread your investments across different areas. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. This way, if one investment tanks, it won't wipe out your entire portfolio. Also, stay informed and flexible. Keep an eye on market trends and be ready to adjust your strategy as needed. But remember, even the best-laid plans can go awry.

Now, picture this. You're at a coffee shop with a friend, chatting about life. Your friend tells you about their new hobby—investing. They’re excited, but also a bit overwhelmed. You sip your coffee and share Sarah's story. You explain that while it's good to be optimistic, it’s crucial to be realistic. No one has a crystal ball. The future is a mix of knowns and unknowns, and investing is about navigating that uncertainty.

You suggest they start with a diversified portfolio. Maybe some in stocks, some in bonds, and a bit in real estate or mutual funds. You also mention the importance of staying updated. Following financial news, reading up on market trends, and maybe consulting with a financial advisor. But, you remind them, even experts can't predict everything.

Your friend nods, taking it all in. You finish your coffee, feeling good about the chat. Investing is a bit like life—full of uncertainties. But with the right approach, you can navigate it with confidence, knowing you've done your best to prepare for whatever comes your way.

And there it is. Investing is about making informed decisions while accepting that the future will always hold surprises. Embrace the uncertainty, diversify, stay informed, and you'll be better equipped to handle the twists and turns of the investment world.
Related tags
Decision-making Financial planning Forecasting Future Investment Investment strategy Risk Uncertainty Unknown
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