"Don't cross a river if it is on average four feet deep"

This quote is all about avoiding assumptions based on averages, which can be misleading. Just because the average depth of a river is four feet, it doesn't mean the entire river is four feet deep. Some parts might be shallower, but others could be much deeper—deep enough to drown you. It’s a warning not to rely solely on averages or generalizations when making decisions, especially when those decisions involve risk.

Think about it: this saying probably popped up in contexts where people were making decisions based on insufficient information. Maybe someone said it during a strategic business discussion or in a survival training class. The core message is timeless and universal—before you take a leap, make sure you understand the details, not just the average.

Here’s a real-life example to drive the point home. Imagine you’re an investor looking at two companies. Both report an average annual return of 5%. Company A had steady returns of 5% every year. Company B had returns varying wildly—one year it was 20%, the next it was -10%, then 15%, then -5%. Despite the same average return, the risk profiles are vastly different. If you invest in Company B without realizing those fluctuations, you could end up losing money in a bad year. It’s like crossing that deceptive river; the depth varies, and you could find yourself in deep trouble.

So how do you apply this nugget of wisdom? First, always dig deeper. Don’t settle for surface-level information. Whether it’s a financial decision, planning an event, or even judging someone’s character, look at the specifics. Ask questions, seek out the extremes, and understand the range of possibilities. It’s like if you’re planning a picnic and the average temperature is a lovely 75°F—you’d still check the weather report for rain or a heatwave, right?

Let’s get a bit more personal. Imagine you’re planning a hiking trip with friends. The average difficulty rating of the trail is “moderate.” Sounds doable, doesn’t it? But if you don’t check the details, you might miss that there’s a particularly grueling section with a steep, rocky climb. Without preparing for that specific part, you could find yourself exhausted, injured, or worse. A friend once went on a “moderate” hike and ended up facing a tough climb near the summit. He hadn’t packed enough water and underestimated the challenge, leading to a pretty miserable experience. If he’d looked into the details rather than relying on the average rating, he would have been better prepared.

When you’re thinking about applying this wisdom, remember: always question averages. Check the range of outcomes and understand the risks involved. In any decision-making process, focus on the specifics. It’s like diving into the fine print of a contract rather than just skimming the headline terms.

So next time you’re faced with an average, ask yourself, “What’s lurking in the depths?” Whether it’s a river, an investment, or a hiking trail, make sure you’re ready for the deepest parts before you step in. Because sometimes, it’s those unexpected depths that can pull you under.