"The problem with complex systems is that we often only understand them retrospectively"

Complex systems are tricky. You only truly grasp them after they've played out. Think of it like watching a movie with a mind-blowing plot twist—you only piece it all together once the credits roll. The point here is that we might think we understand what's going on while we're in the thick of it, but it's only when we look back that everything clicks.

Historically, this idea has cropped up in many fields. In finance, for instance, experts often try to predict market trends. They analyze data, make educated guesses, and sometimes they get it right. But it's only after a financial crash or boom that they can pinpoint the exact factors that led to it. In technology, too, the development of the internet is a great example. When it was just starting, people had no idea it would turn into the game-changer it is today. Only by looking back can we see the steps that got us here.

So, picture this: You’re running a startup. You've got this great idea for a new app. You do your market research, you gather a team, you get funding. Everything seems to be going well. But then, six months in, your user growth stalls. Panic sets in. You try different strategies—new features, marketing blitzes, maybe even a rebrand. Nothing seems to work. You’re puzzled. It’s only after you sit down, review the data, and look at the entire journey that you realize your initial user base wasn’t as engaged as you thought, or maybe you targeted the wrong audience altogether. Hindsight gives you clarity.

How can you use this idea practically? First off, don't beat yourself up when things don’t go as planned. Understand that complex systems are, well, complex. They’re not always predictable. When you’re in the middle of a challenging situation, take notes. Document what you’re doing, what you think is happening, and why. This way, when it's all over, you can look back and see the whole picture more clearly. It’ll help you learn and grow, making you better prepared for next time.

Now, let me tell you a story. Imagine you’re hosting a big family Thanksgiving dinner for the first time. You’ve got recipes from your mom, tips from friends, and you feel ready. As the big day unfolds, chaos ensues. The turkey is taking forever to cook, the mashed potatoes are too lumpy, and the kids are tearing through the house. It's a mess. In the moment, it might feel overwhelming and confusing. But after the dinner, when you’re sitting with a glass of wine, reflecting on the day, you realize the turkey needed more time because it was partially frozen, and you overmixed the potatoes. Next year, you’ll know to start the turkey earlier and handle the potatoes differently.

See what I mean? Complex systems, whether it’s finance, business, or just a big dinner, can be understood fully only in hindsight. So, don’t stress too much when you can’t see the whole picture right away. Just keep moving, keep learning, and soon enough, it’ll all make sense.