"Ce n'est pas l'estimation que vous faites qui compte mais l'erreur que vous faites en pensant même que vous pouvez estimer"

Sometimes we get so caught up in trying to predict everything that we forget just how unpredictable life can be. The essence here is that the problem isn't just in making a guess or an estimate but in the very belief that we can always predict outcomes accurately. This idea is a reminder of our limitations and the inherent uncertainty in life.

Think about it. Back in the early 2000s, no one could've foreseen the explosion of social media. We had no idea that platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram would dominate our lives. Predictions were made, but they were often way off the mark. The bigger issue wasn't in the incorrect predictions; it was in assuming that we could predict the future of technology and human behavior so precisely.

Let’s dive into a practical example. Imagine you're launching a new product. You gather your team and make what you think is a solid estimate about how many units you'll sell in the first quarter. You might base this on market research, past trends, and a bit of gut feeling. But then, unforeseen factors like a sudden shift in consumer preferences or a supply chain hiccup throw your estimates out the window. The real issue here isn’t that your numbers were off. It’s that you believed those numbers were solid in the first place, which led you to make decisions based on shaky ground.

Here’s a tip on applying this wisdom. Next time you’re making plans, acknowledge the uncertainty. Build in flexibility. Think more in ranges and less in absolutes. Instead of saying, "We'll sell 10,000 units," think, "We might sell between 8,000 and 12,000 units, depending on various factors." This way, you're prepared for a wider spectrum of outcomes and can pivot more easily if things don’t go as planned.

Now, picture this: You're planning a big outdoor wedding. You check the weather forecast, which says there’s just a 10% chance of rain. You feel pretty confident about it. But, come the big day, it pours. You’re left scrambling, frustrated, and drenched. The mistake wasn’t just trusting the weather forecast. It was in thinking that you could rely on it without a backup plan. If you’d acknowledged that low chance of rain, maybe you’d have had tents ready or an indoor venue on standby.

So, let’s chat like we’re sitting in our favorite coffee shop. Life’s a wild ride. It’s full of unexpected twists and turns. We can’t always predict what’s around the corner. But if we get too attached to our own estimates, we set ourselves up for disappointment. By recognizing the limits of our foresight, we become more adaptable and resilient. And let’s be real—we could all use a bit more of that in our lives.